Profitability in the car industry: New measures for estimating targets and target directions

In this paper we study the profitability of car manufacturers in relation to industry-wide profitability targets such as industry averages. Specifically we are interested in whether firms adjust their profitability in the direction of these targets, whether it is possible to detect any such change, and, if so, what the precise nature is of these changes.     

Large sample prediction intervals for future geometric mean a comparative study

This paper provides simulation comparisons among the performance of 11 possible prediction intervals for the geometric.mean of a Pareto distribution with parameters (αB, ). Six different procedures were used to obtain these intervals , namely; true inter -val , pivotal interval , maximum likelihood estimation interval, centrallimit teorem interval, variance stabilizing interval and a mixture of the above intervals . Some of these intervals are valid if the observed sample size m,are large , others are valid if both, n and the future sample size m, are large. Some of these intervals require a knowledge of α or B, while others do not. The simulation validation and efficiency study shows that intervals depending on the MLE's are the best. The second best intervalsare those obtained through pivotal methods or variance stabilization transformation. The third group of intervals is that which depends on the central limit theorem when λ is known. There are two intervals which proved to be unacceptable under any criterion.     

Precise Radiometry: Some Recent Aspects of Fruitful Interaction with Atomic Physics

Modern radiometric analytics demands a complex consideration of nuclear and electron shell processes, if more pretentious aims are envisaged. As an example the small variation of decay rates of radionuclides presents possibilities for information on chemical situations of decaying atoms. In principle this phenomenon is well known since many years, but now the situation is such that, e.g. in ^99mTc internal conversion, a full agreement of the difficult experiments and the respective theory was established. The secondary emission of X-rays as a consequence of high excitation of electron shells in combination with nuclear transitions supplies another example for a methodical progress of radiometry. Investigations on ⁵¹Cr as an electron capture nuclide have shown that chemically induced variations of the K_α to K_β X-ray intensity ratio is at least qualitatively understood.     

Signal modeling using the gradient search

This letter presents a new method for continuous signal modeling. Firstly, the continuous signal can be represented as a function of the trigonometric functional extension (Fourier series). Fourier series of the signal are parameterized by the fundamental frequency and unknown parameters. Then, the gradient-based iterative identification algorithm is derived, for estimating parameters of the signal model with known and unknown frequencies, separately. Finally, the simulation results indicate that the proposed algorithm is effective.     

Bayesian Estimation for the Order of INAR(q) Mo del

In this paper, we consider the problem of determining the order of INAR(q) model on the basis of the Bayesian estimation theory. The Bayesian es-timator for the order is given with respect to a squared-error loss function. The consistency of the estimator is discussed. The results of a simulation study for the estimation method are presented.     

Time reversal acoustic communication receivers: DSP implementation and fast channel estimation

A communication system is implemented on digital signal processors (DSPs) for the underwater acoustic environment. The implemented receiver uses time reversal multi-channel combining followed by a single-channel decision feedback equalizer. Periodic channel estimation is employed to track the channel fluctuations. These techniques are used to mitigate time-varying inter-symbol interference, which is the main challenge in the underwater acoustic channel at operating frequencies greater than 10 kHz. Various optimization tasks are performed to reduce the receiver computational complexity. A fast implementation of the matching pursuit algorithm is tested on the DSP platform. Its performance, in terms of accuracy and run-time, is compared with that of the basic matching pursuit algorithm. Experimental results of the transmission and demodulation of binary phase-shift keying signals at three different symbol rates were obtained in the local Delaware Bay. The low bit error rates demonstrate the effectiveness of our implementation.     

Comparison of scale factor estimators for ultrasonic temperature monitoring: Application to structural health monitoring

In Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) of materials, estimating the effects of environmental and operational conditions such as temperature is important. Indeed, temperature changes induce modifications of the mechanical properties of the material and therefore cause a dilation of the acoustic signals characterized by a scale factor. This paper described four scale factor estimators able to monitor changes in temperature: The short-time cross-correlation (STXC) method, the stretching method (STRE), the Minimum Variance Based Estimator method (MVBE) and the Scale Transform Based Estimator method (STBE). The first two methods have already been assessed in the literature while the latter two have been specifically developed for this study. First, closed-form for the Cramer-Rao bound on the estimates of the scale factor, from a simplified deterministic signal, are derived and simplified expressions are given. Then, a statistical evaluation of the quality of estimates is conducted through Monte-Carlo simulations using synthetic signals, based on a model taking into account the influence of temperature. A raw estimate of the computational complexity of signal processing methods also completes this evaluation phase. Finally, the experimental validation of estimation methods is conducted on an aluminum plate subjected to temperatures variations in a controlled thermal environment. The temperature estimates are then faced with an analytical model describing the material behavior.     

一类改进最大熵方法的可调参数分析

在结构可靠性分析中,引入含可调参数的转换函数能对传统的最大熵方法进行改进,获得更高的失效概率预测精度。但是,此可调参数的最佳取值很难确定。针对这一问题,引入概率守恒方程,从功能函数转换前后所得概率密度函数出发,建立其最大熵值的变化关系,给出转换前后最大熵值之差的理论形式。通过对三种典型单调非线性转换函数开展算例研究,发现功能函数转换前后的最大熵值之差与转换函数的最佳可调参数值有关。改变可调参数值驱使最大熵值之差变化的同时,改进最大熵方法能遍历到更好的失效概率估计值。     

A secure communication scheme based on chaotic Duffing oscillators and frequency estimation for the transmission of binary-coded messages

This work presents a new technique to securely transmit and retrieve a message signal via chaotic systems. The main contribution of this paper is two-fold: the way that the message signal is encrypted in the frequency of a sinusoidal term and a novel frequency estimator for retrieving the message. In our system, a two-valued message signal modulates the frequency of the Duffing oscillator sinusoidal term. Then, two chaotic signals generated by the oscillator are encrypted with a Delta modulator and sent through a noisy channel. A Lyapunov-based observer is used in the receiver side to retrieve the sinusoidal term that contains the message and a novel frequency estimator is then used to retrieve the confidential message signal. The system was implemented in Matlab/Simulink in order to analyze its performance.